If the pattern over the last three months is going to continue, the likelihood is that both indices will register inflation rates close to current levels over the next few months.
US consumer confidence tumbled to a five-year low in March, disappointing economists and raising fears that the American economy could be heading into a deep recession. The Conference Board's confidence index fell from 76.4 in February 64.5 this month, compared with economists' expectations of a much lighter drop to about 74, as US consumers fretted over the deteriorating labour market and higher food and energy prices.
The change from wholesale to retail inflation as an anchor means that the weightage of diesel in inflation has decreased
Lower fuel subsidy payouts might restrict gross fiscal deficit in FY15.
After a delayed start, the monsoon is advancing steadily.
Economy to grow 6.5% in 2016 on better macro conditions, says Mckinsey.
The Nielsen survey was conducted online and covered more than 30,000 consumers across 60 markets.
Besides high portfolio yield, investors may enjoy capital gains in debt funds in 2023 as bonds rally in anticipation of rate cuts.
The change in the baseline for IIP and WPI, currently at 2004-05, is expected to bring in more accuracy in mapping the level of economic activity and calculating other numbers like national accounts.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan on Friday said keeping inflation low is the key task for sustainable economic growth of the country.
But it is likely that campaign spending resulted in some positive activity through this period.
The broader markets ended in line with the benchmark indices- BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices ended higher by 1.3% and 0.9% each.
The Seventh Pay Commission had decided to choose the CPI-IW as the index for adjusting inflation for central government employees.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Saturday said that retail inflation is expected to remain close to 5 per cent
Over the past year, the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG Index, which tracks the market capitalisation of the top 15 companies in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, has surged by 17.3 per cent. In contrast, the Nifty50, a broader market index, has witnessed an 8.8 per cent increase during the same period. The FMCG stocks have also been rally leaders in the current calendar year.
The real benefits can be seen when prices stabilise, preferably at levels acceptable to both consumers and producers.
Elections may be a few months away, but the government may get into election mode much earlier than that, predicts A K Bhattacharya.
As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
The Central bank primarily factors Consumer Price Index while deciding on policy rate.
State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Adani-Total Gas Ltd and Shell were among the 29 companies that bid and bought natural gas to be produced from the deepest field in the KG-D6 block of Reliance Industries Ltd and bp, sources said. IOC walked away with almost half of the 6 million standard cubic meters per day of gas sold in an e-auction on Wednesday while state-owned gas utility GAIL bought 0.7 mmscmd, Adani-Total Gas Ltd 0.4 mmscmd, Shell 0.5 mmscmd, GSPC 0.25 mmscmd and IGS another 0.5 mmscmd, two sources with knowledge of the matter said. Reliance-bp on Wednesday held an e-auction for sale of gas from the MJ field in their eastern offshore KG-D6 block after incorporating the government's new marketing rules to give CNG-selling city gas companies first priority over supplies.
Inflation in rural and urban areas in July was 8.45 per cent and 7.42 per cent, respectively.
The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1 points to end at 26,396 and the Nifty50 slipped 2 points to end at 8,109.
In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday left the repo rate unchanged at 7.75 per cent, while the cash reserve ratio too is retained at 4 per cent.
The rate of price rise in vegetables stood at 15.15 per cent in August as against 16.88 per cent in the previous month.
Jaitley said inflation has been under control for long and is likely to remain so on the back of good monsoon and unlikely spike in oil prices.
November IIP data show a fall of over 20%, led by automobiles, gems & jewellery and home appliances; turnaround seen as unlikely.
Inflation trajectory does not match the slump in demand, prolonged pause on rates likely.
Metal and mining companies, such as Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, and Coal India, have been among the top-performing sectors on the bourses in recent months. The S&P BSE Metal Index is up 13 per cent in the past three months, rallying 29 per cent in the past year, outperforming the broader market. For comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has only seen a 1.7 per cent increase in the past three months, with a 15 per cent gain since the end of September last year.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to step up efforts to boost consumption and rural economy while keeping inflation under check when she presents her sixth straight Budget on February 1. Experts said one way to boost consumption is to put more money in the hands of people, and one of the possible ways of doing it is by reducing the tax burden through tinkering with tax slabs or increasing the standard deduction. Another proposal is related to increasing the funds under the rural employment guarantee scheme MGNREGA and higher payout for farmers.
Slowdown in industrial production notwithstanding, a marginal increase in inflation raised the clamour for another round of rate cut by the Reserve Bank on April 4 to boost economic activity.
The RBI, which mainly factors in CPI for arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy, has been mandated by the government to ensure that inflation remains at 4 per cent, with deviation of 2 per cent on either side.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 1.4 per cent in November as most components like manufacturing, electricity, mining, primary goods, and consumer durables witnessed a slowdown, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. This is on the base of a decline of 1.7 per cent in November 2020 and before the new Covid variant started impacting economic activity. IIP growth was lower than the 4 per cent expansion recorded in the previous month but was better than a 1.6 per cent contraction seen in November 2020. Separately, rising prices of kitchen staples pushed retail inflation, or rate of price increase, to 5.59 per cent in December 2021, bringing it close to the upper band of Reserve Bank's comfort zone.
Disagreeing with Reserve Bank's projection on the price situation, former RBI Governor and PM's Economic Advisory Council chairman C Rangarajan said WPI and CPI may not be as high as being projected by the central bank.
The price of export quality lady's finger, for example, shot up 150 per cent in two weeks to close on Thursday at Rs 40 a kg against Rs 16 a kg on September 16 in the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee, Vashi, near Mumbai.
To the extent that monetary variables affect investment, the weather, thus, looks far less clement.
Retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.35 per cent in September from 7.27 per cent in the year-ago period as prices of vegetables and other items declined, according to government data released on Tuesday. The moderation in Consumer Price Index-based inflation is in line with the assessment of Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das who recently projected substantial softening of retail inflation. The CPI inflation was at 5.3 per cent in August and at 7.27 per cent in September 2020.
A rise in petrol and diesel consumption can help the government cut cesses on the fuels by Rs 4.5 a litre without impacting revenue collections of FY21, and help cool off the pressure on inflation, domestic rating agency ICRA said on Friday. Petrol consumption is estimated to increase 14 per cent in 2021-22 and diesel by 10 per cent on the lower base, rise in mobility and economic recovery, ICRA said. The rating agency added that it will result in an additional Rs 40,000 crore in revenue for the government through higher collections of the cess.
The Consumer Confidence Index score for India decreased by six points to 128 in the April-June quarter of 2017, from a high of 136 from the last polled survey in Q4 of 2016, market insight first Nielsen has said in a statement.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
GDP growth in November is the second-highest since January 2012 when it had expanded 5.7%.
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